Hype Cycles are the natural social progression of a disruptive technology. Blogs are the prime example people who know about this stuff are applying it to, right now. Really, it applies to just about everything, even on a macro scale. In other words, it applies to the entire internet, period. We constantly find ourselves at various points on the various hype cycles that pertain to all the technologies surrounding us.
Gartner will sell you the complete report—no doubt with snazzy charts and graphics—for $495. That’s not too bad as far as these things go. However, just reading the summary would give anyone enough information to be able to make intelligent decisions about their business strategies regarding emerging technologies:
- “Technology Trigger”
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. - “Peak of Inflated Expectations”
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. - “Trough of Disillusionment”
Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. - “Slope of Enlightenment”
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. - “Plateau of Productivity”
A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
If you want to read another opinion on the matter and see a graph of the hype cycle, you may find it at Genuine VC.
